Yesterday the billet dropped 60 percent, today the billet rebounded 40 percent, like a roller coaster, up and down, it's hard to understand.Now we have been standing in the tail of March, steel city can again sail, feel the harvest of three gold?The following Xiaobian will be from the cost, inventory, spot transaction and macro and other aspects to analyze the recent trend of the steel market.

First, today's cost review

Domestic steel production costs continue to fall year-on-year, generally down 43-45 yuan/ton, the decline in production costs slowed down slightly, business mentality is acceptable.

II. Inventory statistics

On March 24, Tangshan billet stock totaled 482,300 tons, decreased by 33,700 tons compared with yesterday. Among them, Haiyi HongRun yesterday input 0.3 and output 2.28 tons, and now the stock is 208,500 tons.Xiangyu Zhengfeng yesterday inbound 0.02 outbound 1.27, the current inventory of 231,500 tons;Product Zhenxiang warehousing input was 0.26 and warehousing output was 0.4 yesterday, and now the inventory is 42,300 tons.On the market, this billet direct transaction is general, period snail holding green shock, traders operation more show wait-and-see, trading mainly focused on long-term resources.

Third, spot market quotation and future market research and judgment

[Steel scrap] now Tangshan steel scrap main stable rise, heavy waste 3070-3100, a crushing material 3120-3150, billet head 3330-3360.Traders shipping positive, steel inventory increase, scrap prices are expected to continue to weaken in the short term.

[domestic mine] yesterday refers to the general rose to 160.5 dollars, but the business mentality is not good, and steel pressure atmosphere still exists, but because traders are in a wa-see state and local supplies outflow is serious, the market price only a small drop, is expected in the short term domestic mine market stability in the weak, individual about 10 yuan of adjustment.

[coal coke] Tangshan quasi level metallurgical coke including tax to the factory 2160 yuan/ton;Secondary metallurgical coke 2100 yuan/ton, all to the factory price including tax.The seventh round of lifting and lowering is expected to be fully landed today, the strict implementation of the production limit policy, steel mills on demand procurement, short-term coke weakening operation.

[billet] 24 Tangshan billet increased 40 to 4600 yuan/ton, direct hair transaction performance is general, at present Tangshan local and some of the surrounding steel mill carbon billet at 4600 yuan/ton, Qian 'an mainstream steel mill carbon billet up 20 to 4620 yuan/ton, including tax factory, merchants bare price of 4290 yuan, the price of other surrounding areas mainly reduced.In terms of local finished materials, the mainstream has reduced 20-50, the overall transaction is general, and the terminal merchants are cautious in replenishing the warehouse. Before noon, the Tangshan billet warehousing spot receipt price is 4650 yuan, quoted 4670-4690 yuan (all tax included).In this period, the spiral coil turned red and went up, easing the cautious market atmosphere, plus the current market billet production volume is still lower than the downstream demand, and the recent billet stock decline is obvious, the manufacturer is more optimistic about the future market, so it is expected that the short term billet price is stable and strong.Zibo carbon billet 4650 yuan/ton;Low alloy billet 4830 yuan/ton;Wu 'an Pu carbon billet 4550 yuan/ton;Low alloy billet 4620 yuan/ton;Xuzhou carbon billet 4550 yuan/ton, low alloy billet 4640 yuan/ton;Jilin general carbon billet 4570 yuan/ton, low alloy billet 4720 yuan/ton.All above areas are cash inclusive of tax.

[Strip] North China tropical stable upward.Price as of noon, Tangshan 145 narrow band up 40 to 4940 including tax ex-factory, Ruifeng 285-325 stable at 5000 yuan/ton;Tianjin 235-355 Poly Da down 60 to 5020 including tax ex-factory;Handan Wenfeng rose 10 yuan to 4,930 yuan a ton.Market, the early opening of the dominant market Tangshan narrow band stable after trading gradually smooth intra-day up 40, most manufacturers out of Nissan.Another narrow - band tax bill to 410, the equivalent of tax - free rise 30.355 series broadband market is strong, spot bare price mainstream 4600-4650 (mainstream 4605), Hongxing 4610, Ruifeng 4680, Hongxing futures about 4600-4610, spot price including tax 5000-5080.Handan traders stable to 4930-4940, broadband prices quoted 5040-5070 or so, some specifications are temporarily short of stock.This period of snail significantly higher, better business mentality, spot than this morning up 40 or so.Because billet tired up 40 cost end is still strong, the terminal inquiry increase, the market low transaction can be.Consider the downstream high purchase volume is general, bright or narrow strong.

[plate] North China plate price shock sorting, range of 10-20 yuan/ton, until noon mainstream Tangshan plate base price of 5000 yuan/ton, Tianjin plate 16-20mm day steel 4950 yuan/ton, Wu 'an 14-25mm Puyang/Jishan steel 4920-4940 yuan/ton.Spot mood following the futures market, this performance weak after a strong first, early stage of steel with green shock shock, loose in the spot price stability, high but is generally low, some resources dish in phase with the rise in steel, steel billet three up tired up 40 to 4600, by this boost, merchants willing and pretty price, clinch a deal better with, tianjin, wuan market clinch a deal are smooth, low amount on each in succession after are high;Tangshan, Shijiazhuang transaction is general, the price is relatively stable.In the short term, the current spot market price is at a high level, and the fear of high in the downstream is still obvious. However, under the background of environmental protection production limit and continuous downward trend of social bank, the bottom of the market also has support. In the short term, the upper and lower space of the price is limited.

[profile] Tangshan profile after falling to rise.At the time of writing, horn zheng feng 5#5010 down 30;Trough ruixing 8-14#5070 down 30;Gongtang City 16#4980 stable.At present, the steel enterprises will not reduce the overall replenishment of raw materials, traders because of the high cost of goods, the two sides of the market game mentality is strong.In addition, the terminal demand for lumber is slow to follow up, and the downstream merchants have a low acceptance of high prices. They mainly purchase on demand and have a strong overall aversion to risk.But by billet shock pull up boost, stimulate middlemen into the market to fill the warehouse, rolling mill shipments obviously volume, the price also rose.Short - term profile market is expected to be low by high adjustment.

[hot roll] North China hot roll slightly stronger, as of the mainstream Tangshan open flat base price 5070 yuan/ton, Tianjin 1500mm carbon mainstream offer 5020-5040 yuan/ton, Handan 1500mm carbon mainstream offer 4990-5000 yuan/ton.Taiyuan 1500mm general carbon mainstream quotation 5000.On the market, the main black hot morning volume up 1.06%, at 5158.Tangshan local billet load up 40 to 4600 yuan/ton.The pre-noon volume pushed up, the spot market attitude positive tentative upward adjustment, the North China market is slightly stronger, Tangshan open plate 5070 up 40, volume resources 5060, Tianjin 5020-5040 up 10, Handan 4990-5000 up 10, Taiyuan 5000 stable.Transaction aspect: some investors believe that the decline caused by Tangshan production limit is excessive, iron ore rebounded in the morning, and the terminal wait-and-see mentality has also changed, with the price up, just need users to seize the opportunity to implement orders, low transaction volume.Comprehensive consideration of high cost support, is expected to short - term North China hot coil market prices strong shocks.

4. Macro news

In the middle of March, the social inventory of 5 kinds of steel in 20 cities was 17.28 million tons, down 490,000 tons, or 2.8%, which was the first time this year that there was a month-on-month decline.9.98 million tons more than at the beginning of the year, an increase of 136.7%;Compared with the same period last year, 2.72 million tons, down 13.6 percent.

[China's imports of coking coal decreased by 58.1% in January-February and by 52.5% in anthracite] News from the General Administration of Customs: In January-February, China imported 6.35 million tons of coking coal, down by 58.1% year on year, and the total import value was 672.36 million dollars, down by 67.9% year on year.The accumulative import of anthracite was 630,000 tons, down 52.5% year on year, and the accumulative import value was 61.46 million dollars, down 49.8% year on year.

Recently, the preliminary data released by the World Iron and Steel Association showed that in February 2021, the crude steel output of 64 countries included in the statistics of the World Iron and Steel Association was 150 million tons, up by 4.1% year on year.The top 10 crude steel producers in February were China, India, Japan, the United States, Russia, South Korea, Turkey, Germany, Brazil and Iran.