Core tip: agency data shows that the current rebar production profit is about 316.2 yuan per ton on average, compared with the highest point since this year, down by more than 700 yuan/ton.With the apparent shrinkage of tonnage steel profits, profit margins of some iron and steel enterprises may be affected.

Iron and steel prices have experienced a large reduction in May, steel enterprises tonnage profit has declined significantly.Agency data show that the current rebar production profit is about 316.2 yuan per ton on average, compared with the highest point this year, down by more than 700 yuan per ton.With the apparent shrinkage of tonnage steel profits, profit margins of some iron and steel enterprises may be affected.

Profits per ton of steel fell

Agency monitoring data showed that on May 11, the national average price of rebar steel reached the highest 6,236 yuan/ton, 1,916 yuan/ton higher than before the Spring Festival, an increase of 44.4%.On May 27, the national average price of rebar steel fell to 4,952 yuan/ton, down 1,284 yuan/ton, or 20.6 percent, from the previous peak.Since then, the price of rebar rose slightly, compared with the lowest point of this round of decline, the recovery rate is about 200 yuan/ton.

More than rebar, hot coil varieties also out of the same market.On May 12, the national average price of hot-rolled coil reached the highest level of 6,665 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,150 yuan/ton, or 47.6 percent, compared with before the Spring Festival.On May 27, the national average price of hot rolled coil fell to 5,280 yuan/ton, down 1,385 yuan/ton, or 20.8% from the peak.Since then, the price of hot rolled coil has risen slightly, rebounding by nearly 300 yuan/ton compared to the lowest point of this round of decline.

It is worth noting that due to the rebar and other finished steel prices have a large callback, steel enterprises tonnage profit decline significantly.

When the steel price is the highest, the profit of the steel mill is basically maintained at more than 1000 yuan/ton, and the profit of some steel mills is close to 2000 yuan/ton.With the fall in steel prices, the lowest ton-steel profit contracted to 100 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton, local low price area building materials even appeared in the red, steel mill profit greatly compressed.

On June 7, according to Guotai Junan Research Report calculation, the current rebar production profit rose 96.8 yuan per ton, climbed to 316.2 yuan/ton, hot coil profit fell 3.2 yuan/ton to 646.2 yuan/ton.

The forecast for half-year results was encouraging

As of the evening of June 7, A shares A total of 6 steel industry listed companies disclosed semi-annual performance forecast, slightly increased 1, increased 5, has disclosed the performance forecast of the listed companies are all pre-joy.The six listed companies all disclosed their half-year earnings previews before April 30, and all of them are after-market forecasts based on first-quarter results.As the first quarter steel prices continued to be in the rising range, so these listed companies on the first half of the results are generally optimistic.

Aftermarket shock is expected to be weak

In view of the medium and long-term trend of the steel market, the relatively strong demand at home and abroad, the suppressed supply capacity superimposed high cost support, the next 1-2 months, steel prices will be in the current price level of shock operation.Given the recent increase in market supply and seasonal weakening of demand, price volatility may be weak.

In the short term, the need to pay attention to the new steel industry policies, including export tariffs, overcapacity back to look at the inspection results, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology production control policies.Also to watch are financial data for May and June, manufacturing orders, exports and the pace of inventory decline in the market.

Industrial Securities Research News pointed out that in the overseas demand recovery + domestic manufacturing recovery + supply side of the "double limit" background, steel prices do not have the basis for a sharp fall, the overfall rebound in line with the previous judgment, subsequent steel prices or shock up, industry profits will remain in a reasonable range.In the case of strict control of the supply end, the profit center of the entire steel industry or gradually rise.